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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 62 yards to CIN 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 15 for 1 yard (55-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model