Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(12:55) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to DET 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-37-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.49 EP
75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model