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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -13.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

GB
62.1%
DET
37.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • David Blough (DET): -0.178 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.099 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

GB 26
–
DET 20
Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

GB

Will Redmond S Doubtful Hamstring
Dan Vitale RB Doubtful Knee
Jamaal Williams RB Doubtful Shoulder
Jake Kumerow WR Questionable Illness

DET

A'Shawn Robinson DT Out Shoulder
Devon Kennard LB Questionable Shoulder
Steve Longa LB Questionable Quadricep
Tavon Wilson S Questionable Hamstring
Matt Prater K Questionable Illness
Rick Wagner T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 23
–
DET 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:07 TD DET (8:07) (Shotgun) 80-D.Amendola pass short left to 10-D.Blough for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 03:17 TD DET (3:17) 33-K.Johnson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DET 13
  • Q2 00:24 FG GB (:24) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 3 – DET 14
  • Q2 00:03 FG DET (:03) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. GB 3 – DET 17
  • Q3 03:16 TD GB (3:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – DET 17
  • Q4 12:11 FG GB (12:11) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 13 – DET 17
  • Q4 11:13 FG DET (11:13) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. GB 13 – DET 20
  • Q4 05:24 TD GB (5:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 13-A.Lazard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Okwara]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 19 – DET 20
  • Q4 00:03 FG GB (:03) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 23 – DET 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 47%

    (13:25) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:21) 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to DET 27, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 77%

    (4:51) 33-A.Jones up the middle to DET 29 for 2 yards (54-S.Longa; 99-J.Atkins).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:13) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to GB 37, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 19 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:55) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to DET 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-37-J.Jackson.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:44) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to GB 34, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 35%

    (9:13) 6-J.Scott punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (3:17) 33-K.Johnson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (:24) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 73%

    (11:09) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 52%

    (9:09) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to GB 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-49-C.Moore.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:50) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to GB 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 32-T.Ervin to GB 27 for 1 yard (82-L.Thomas).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (12:11) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 65%

    (11:13) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:46) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to DET 33, Center-43-H.Bradley. 39-J.Agnew to DET 44 for 11 yards (51-K.Fackrell).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 77%

    (5:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at DET 28 for 3 yards (23-D.Slay). DET-94-A.Bryant was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 28%

    (3:45) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to GB 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 32-T.Ervin to GB 26 for 16 yards (82-L.Thomas).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:27) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to GB 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (:03) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.