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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 44

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.72 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP