4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:24) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.87 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model