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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 42

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to GB 5, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-49-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model