Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 74

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 10

(1:50) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to GB 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 32-T.Ervin to GB 27 for 1 yard (82-L.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model