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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 37

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 5-M.Prater 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.47 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP