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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 52

Detroit Lions 20 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to GB 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 32-T.Ervin to GB 26 for 16 yards (82-L.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model