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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 20 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(:03) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +1.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model