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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 85

Detroit Lions 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to GB 37, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.94 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP