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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 35

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 4-J.Lambo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model