4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

7-9 HC Frank Reich
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

6-10 HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 16:25 ET TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

IND
61.8%
JAX
38.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Gardner Minshew (JAX): -0.071 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

IND 25 18–32
–
JAX 20 13–27
Projected margin: IND by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

IND

Quincy Wilson CB Out Shoulder
Jordan Wilkins RB Out Ankle
Denico Autry DT Doubtful Concussion
Khari Willis S Doubtful Shoulder
Al-Quadin Muhammad DE Questionable Groin
Kenny Moore CB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Michael Walker WR Out Hamstring
A.J. Bouye CB Out Wrist
Leonard Fournette RB Doubtful Neck
Dede Westbrook WR Questionable Neck
Dakota Allen LB Questionable Hamstring
Gardner Minshew QB Questionable right Shoulder
Nick O'Leary TE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 20
–
JAX 38

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:08 FG IND (9:08) 5-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – JAX 0
  • Q1 06:22 FG JAX (6:22) 4-J.Lambo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 3 – JAX 3
  • Q1 00:47 TD IND (:47) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – JAX 3
  • Q2 12:05 FG JAX (12:05) 4-J.Lambo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 10 – JAX 6
  • Q2 05:49 TD JAX (5:49) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 84-K.Cole for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – JAX 12
  • Q2 02:16 TD IND (2:16) 25-M.Mack left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – JAX 13
  • Q2 00:44 FG IND (:44) 5-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 20 – JAX 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG JAX (:02) 4-J.Lambo 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. IND 20 – JAX 16
  • Q3 08:33 TD JAX (8:33) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 23-R.Armstead for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-T.Lewis]. PENALTY on IND-94-T.Lewis, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. IND 94 was called for roughing the passer and JAX elected to take the enforcement from the conversion spot of the two yard line. IND 20 – JAX 22
  • Q4 09:41 TD JAX (9:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end to IND 9 for 6 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-93-C.Campbell at IND 8. 93-C.Campbell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – JAX 30
  • Q4 04:49 TD JAX (4:49) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 12-D.Westbrook for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. IND 20 – JAX 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (9:08) 5-C.McLaughlin 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (6:22) 4-J.Lambo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 66%

    (12:05) 4-J.Lambo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.93 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 26%

    (9:47) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%

    (:44) 5-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 18 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to IND 7, Center-46-M.Orzech. 21-N.Hines to IND 25 for 18 yards (40-B.Watson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 30%

    (14:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:42) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to IND 8, Center-46-M.Orzech. 21-N.Hines to IND 10 for 2 yards (48-L.Jacobs). PENALTY on IND-39-M.Tell III, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:16) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 83-M.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →