Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 20

(2:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to IND 7, Center-46-M.Orzech. 21-N.Hines to IND 25 for 18 yards (40-B.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model