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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.89 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model