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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(10:42) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to IND 8, Center-46-M.Orzech. 21-N.Hines to IND 10 for 2 yards (48-L.Jacobs). PENALTY on IND-39-M.Tell III, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.68 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model