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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 2

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 4-J.Lambo 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.42 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 2, worth +0.79 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP