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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 40

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model