Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.264 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- LAC offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- KC defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- Wind 16 mph
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
LAC
KC
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:33 FG KC (1:33) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. LAC 0 – KC 3
- Q2 11:49 TD LAC (11:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-22-J.Thornhill was injured during the play. LAC 6 – KC 3
- Q2 02:23 TD KC (2:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – KC 9
- Q3 13:19 TD LAC (13:19) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – KC 10
- Q3 13:14 TD KC 1-T.Long kicks 69 yards from LAC 35 to KC -4. 17-M.Hardman for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – KC 16
- Q3 06:41 TD KC (6:41) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams left end for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – KC 23
- Q4 05:28 TD LAC (5:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – KC 24
- Q4 02:42 TD KC (2:42) 26-Dam.Williams right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 21 – KC 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(9:53) 1-T.Long punts 44 yards to KC 10, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman to KC 16 for 6 yards (23-R.Jenkins; 48-N.Dzubnar).
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Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 86%
(1:33) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 40Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 45%
(5:34) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EPp(convert) 72%
(3:56) 1-T.Long punts 43 yards to KC 28, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 43 for 15 yards (57-J.Brown).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 77Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(10:45) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 26 for 3 yards (64-M.Pennel).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 19 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(6:55) 1-T.Long punts 47 yards to KC 16, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman to KC 16 for no gain (49-D.Tranquill).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(:33) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to KC 5 for no gain (95-C.Jones; 64-M.Pennel).
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Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 58%
(12:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 63 yards to LAC 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-B.Pringle.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 77Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(10:44) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right end to LAC 24 for 1 yard (23-A.Watts).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 17 at the 68 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(1:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at 50. 49-D.Sorensen to LAC 44 for 6 yards (13-K.Allen).