4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 1-T.Long punts 43 yards to KC 28, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at KC 43 for 15 yards (57-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP