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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 77

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(10:45) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 26 for 3 yards (64-M.Pennel).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.72 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model