Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(6:55) 1-T.Long punts 47 yards to KC 16, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman to KC 16 for no gain (49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model