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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 5

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle to KC 5 for no gain (95-C.Jones; 64-M.Pennel).

The Three Options

GO +3.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model