4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at 50. 49-D.Sorensen to LAC 44 for 6 yards (13-K.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -0.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model