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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 25

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model