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Oakland Raiders

7-9 HC Jon Gruden
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

7-9 HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 16:25 ET Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🥶 Cold Spread 5.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

OAK
43.5%
DEN
56.5%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.217 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

OAK 20 13–27
–
DEN 22 15–29
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

OAK

Josh Jacobs RB Out Shoulder
Richie Incognito G Doubtful Ankle

DEN

Ja'Wuan James T Out Knee
Ronald Leary G Out Concussion
Elijah Wilkinson T Out Ankle
DeMarcus Walker DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 15
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:10 FG LV (14:10) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 3 – DEN 0
  • Q2 08:25 FG DEN (8:25) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. OAK 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 00:33 TD DEN (:33) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 83-A.Beck for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – DEN 9
  • Q3 04:41 FG DEN (4:41) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. PENALTY on LV-97-J.Mauro, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. OAK 3 – DEN 13
  • Q4 15:00 FG DEN (15:00) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. OAK 3 – DEN 16
  • Q4 09:07 FG LV (9:07) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 6 – DEN 16
  • Q4 03:13 FG LV (3:13) 8-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 9 – DEN 16
  • Q4 00:11 TD LV (:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 15 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 54 yards to LV 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 25 for 5 yards (19-F.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (7:42) 8-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:51) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to LV 7, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (14:10) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

    (8:25) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (4:14) (Run formation) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (58-V.Miller, 45-A.Johnson). Oakland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 04:06.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:33) 6-C.Wadman punts 57 yards to LV 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-54-J.Watson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

    (13:04) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (10:56) 6-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to LV 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-H.Renfrow MUFFS catch, recovered by LV-45-A.Ingold at LV 37. 45-A.Ingold ran ob at LV 37 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:19) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to DEN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%

    (4:41) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. PENALTY on LV-97-J.Mauro, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (3:08) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-T.Sieg. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 41 for 4 yards (58-K.Wilber).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 72%

    (15:00) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 12 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (9:07) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (3:13) 8-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:51) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to LV 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 83-D.Waller.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 39%

    (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman ran ob at DEN 34 for 11 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →