OAK @ DEN — 4th & Data

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Sunday 2019-12-29 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🥶 Cold Spread 5.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

OAK

47.2%

DEN

52.8%

🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Derek Carr (LV): +0.217 EPA/dropback in prior starts
LV defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
DEN offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 20

–

DEN 22

Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

OAK

Josh Jacobs RB Out Shoulder

Richie Incognito G Doubtful Ankle

DEN

Ja'Wuan James T Out Knee

Ronald Leary G Out Concussion

Elijah Wilkinson T Out Ankle

DeMarcus Walker DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 15

–

DEN 16

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 14:10 FG LV (14:10) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 3 – DEN 0
Q2 08:25 FG DEN (8:25) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. OAK 3 – DEN 3
Q2 00:33 TD DEN (:33) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 83-A.Beck for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – DEN 9
Q3 04:41 FG DEN (4:41) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. PENALTY on LV-97-J.Mauro, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. OAK 3 – DEN 13
Q4 15:00 FG DEN (15:00) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. OAK 3 – DEN 16
Q4 09:07 FG LV (9:07) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 6 – DEN 16
Q4 03:13 FG LV (3:13) 8-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. OAK 9 – DEN 16
Q4 00:11 TD LV (:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 15 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(14:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 54 yards to LV 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 25 for 5 yards (19-F.Brown).
Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 20

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

(7:42) 8-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(3:51) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to LV 7, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.
Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

(14:10) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 85%

(8:25) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

(4:14) (Run formation) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to DEN 1 for no gain (58-V.Miller, 45-A.Johnson). Oakland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 04:06.)
Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(2:33) 6-C.Wadman punts 57 yards to LV 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-54-J.Watson.
Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

(13:04) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.
Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 82

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP

p(convert) 64%

(10:56) 6-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to LV 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-H.Renfrow MUFFS catch, recovered by LV-45-A.Ingold at LV 37. 45-A.Ingold ran ob at LV 37 for no gain.
Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 55

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP

p(convert) 59%

(9:19) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to DEN 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.
Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%

(4:41) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. PENALTY on LV-97-J.Mauro, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 86

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 57%

(3:08) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-T.Sieg. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 41 for 4 yards (58-K.Wilber).
Q4 DEN 4th & 12 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 72%

(15:00) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
Q4 LV 4th & 12 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

(9:07) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 10 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

(3:13) 8-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(2:51) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to LV 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.
Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 73 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 83-D.Waller.
Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 45 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 39%

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman ran ob at DEN 34 for 11 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.