4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Wadman punts 54 yards to LV 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 25 for 5 yards (19-F.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.12 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model