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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 85

Denver Broncos 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 6-C.Wadman punts 57 yards to LV 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-54-J.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.89 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 85, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model