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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 82

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 6-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to LV 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 13-H.Renfrow MUFFS catch, recovered by LV-45-A.Ingold at LV 37. 45-A.Ingold ran ob at LV 37 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP