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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 31

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 8-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. PENALTY on LV-97-J.Mauro, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.40 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model