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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 86

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-T.Sieg. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 41 for 4 yards (58-K.Wilber).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.77 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 86, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP