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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 32

Denver Broncos 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model