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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 15

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 8-D.Carlson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.06 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model