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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 10

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 8-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.23 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 10, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model