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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to LV 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model