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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 45

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-M.Ateman ran ob at DEN 34 for 11 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.02 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP