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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 8-D.Carlson 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.63 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP