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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 8-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 5, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP