Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(13:06) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to SEA 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 83-D.Moore to SEA 38 for 16 yards (31-R.Mostert).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model