Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- SEA offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.120 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.118 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
SF
SEA
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:41 FG SF (7:41) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – SEA 0
- Q1 00:32 TD SF (:32) 19-D.Samuel left end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SF 9 – SEA 0
- Q2 05:49 FG SF (5:49) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 13 – SEA 0
- Q3 05:53 TD SEA (5:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – SEA 6
- Q3 03:28 TD SF (3:28) 31-R.Mostert right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – SEA 7
- Q4 09:59 TD SEA (9:59) 73-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – SEA 13
- Q4 05:55 TD SF (5:55) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 25 – SEA 14
- Q4 03:40 TD SEA (3:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-DK.Metcalf for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – SEA 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:59) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to SF 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 21 for 6 yards (27-M.Blair).
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Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%
(7:41) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 52%
(5:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(11:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to SF 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 31 for 4 yards (44-N.Bellore). PENALTY on SF-32-D.Reed Jr., Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 27.
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Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%
(5:49) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 76%
(:49) 73-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 24-M.Lynch left guard to SF 31 for no gain (97-N.Bosa).
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Q3 SF 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:06) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to SEA 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 83-D.Moore to SEA 38 for 16 yards (31-R.Mostert).
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Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EPp(convert) 72%
(2:34) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to SEA 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 12 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.21 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(:42) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 15-J.Ursua to SF 1 for 11 yards (24-K.Williams).
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Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 5 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 48-J.Hollister to SF 1 for 4 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.