4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 56

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP