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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime: 4.22s

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.79 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP