Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: +0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- HOU defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
TEN
HOU
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:29 TD HOU (7:29) (Shotgun) 25-D.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 6
- Q1 05:45 TD TEN (5:45) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – HOU 7
- Q2 09:49 TD TEN (9:49) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-M.Pruitt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – HOU 7
- Q3 10:11 TD TEN (10:11) 22-D.Henry right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. TEN 20 – HOU 7
- Q3 01:16 TD HOU (1:16) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 21 – HOU 13
- Q4 14:08 TD TEN (14:08) 22-D.Henry left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – HOU 14
- Q4 03:04 TD TEN (3:04) 22-D.Henry left guard for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 34 – HOU 14
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(8:05) (Shotgun) 38-G.Howell up the middle to TEN 1 for 1 yard (24-K.Vaccaro; 99-J.Casey).
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Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(2:55) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-R.Davis. Punt Hangtime: 4.97s
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Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 61%
(8:48) 9-B.Anger punts 58 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-R.Davis to TEN 19 for 10 yards (33-A.Moore; 34-T.Jones). Punt Hangtime: 4.72s
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Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 61% p(FG) 35%
(5:48) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime: 4.22s
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Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:05) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-R.Davis. Punt Hangtime: 5.03s
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Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 30%
(:47) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-D.Carter. Punt Hangtime: 4.07s
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Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 52%
(6:35) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron pass short left to 25-D.Johnson pushed ob at TEN 39 for 3 yards (54-R.Evans).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:29) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-R.Davis to TEN 21 for -1 yards (35-K.Crossen). Punt Hangtime: 4.19s
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Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(10:29) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to HOU 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-D.Carter to HOU 30 for 12 yards (53-D.Bates; 36-L.Sims). Punt Hangtime: 4.40s
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Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(7:56) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to TEN 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-R.Davis. Punt Hangtime: 4.97s
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Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 30 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 79%
(3:30) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron pass short right intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 15. 31-K.Byard pushed ob at TEN 15 for no gain (38-G.Howell).
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Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 31 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%
(1:40) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron pass incomplete short right to 16-K.Coutee.