Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 63

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

(2:05) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-R.Davis. Punt Hangtime: 5.03s

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.33 EP
60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model