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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 42

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(6:35) (Shotgun) 2-A.McCarron pass short left to 25-D.Johnson pushed ob at TEN 39 for 3 yards (54-R.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model