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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 14 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-R.Davis to TEN 21 for -1 yards (35-K.Crossen). Punt Hangtime: 4.19s

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model