Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 28 – Houston Texans 14

(10:29) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to HOU 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-D.Carter to HOU 30 for 12 yards (53-D.Bates; 36-L.Sims). Punt Hangtime: 4.40s

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.40 EP
56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model