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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 2

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Shotgun) 38-G.Howell up the middle to TEN 1 for 1 yard (24-K.Vaccaro; 99-J.Casey).

The Three Options

GO +4.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.56 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.78 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model