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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 56

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-R.Davis. Punt Hangtime: 4.97s

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model