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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 60

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to BUF 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-K.Crossen.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 19, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model